Showing posts with label Power Rankings. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Power Rankings. Show all posts

Friday, December 17, 2010

Power Rankings – Pre Bowl

First of all I apologize to our blog readers, should any actually remain. In the past 2 weeks I’ve moved residences (leaving me without computer access) and been down with a nasty case of the Flu. So I’ve been AWOL during this active time (welcome Will Muschamp!)

I know some of you have looked at my Power Rankings in the past for “investment” purposes, so they are presented here pre-bowl (all disclaimers apply – not a gambling website). Here are the Pre-Bowl Rankings for all 120 NCAA teams –



1
Auburn

2.2523
2
Boise St
.

2.1603
3
TCU

2.0826
4
Ohio St
.

2.0100
5
Missouri

1.9592
6
Oregon

1.8915
7
Arkansas

1.8792
8
LSU

1.8380
9
Oklahoma

1.8374
10
Stanford

1.8097
11
Alabama

1.7954
12
Oklahoma St
.

1.7643
13
Michigan St
.

1.7466
14
Wisconsin

1.7436
15
Texas A&M

1.6969
16
Virginia Tech

1.6036
17
Nebraska

1.5793
18
Nevada

1.5223
19
South Carolina

1.4623
20
West Virginia

1.4620
21
Florida St
.

1.4017
22
Iowa

1.3452
23
Utah

1.3254
24
Hawaii

1.3150
25
Notre Dame

1.2978
26
North Carolina St
.

1.2959
27
Mississippi St
.

1.2378
28
Florida

1.2124
29
Air Force

1.2120
30
Miami (FL)

1.1846
31
Illinois

1.1800
32
Tulsa

1.1642
33
UCF

1.1617
34
Maryland

1.1375
35
Michigan

1.1245
36
Arizona

1.1199
37
Pittsburgh

1.1130
38
Northern Ill.

1.1116
39
Penn St.

1.1009
40
Navy

1.0962
41
Clemson

1.0956
42
Baylor

1.0873
43
Georgia

1.0863
44
Arizona St
.

1.0829
45
Kansas St
.

1.0593
46
San Diego St
.

1.0556
47
Texas Tech

1.0549
48
East Carolina

1.0060
49
Southern California

1.0059
50
Southern Miss.

1.0027
51
North Carolina

0.9899
52
Connecticut

0.9761
53
California

0.9517
54
Temple

0.9507
55
Fresno St
.

0.9445
56
Oregon St
.

0.9297
57
Cincinnati

0.9121
58
Ohio

0.9104
59
BYU

0.9077
60
Boston College

0.9050
61
Syracuse

0.8936
62
South Fla.

0.8870
63
Tennessee

0.8864
64
SMU

0.8792
65
Iowa St.

0.8780
66
Houston

0.8669
67
Louisiana Tech

0.8618
68
Mississippi

0.8601
69
Texas

0.8570
70
Toledo

0.8444
71
Kentucky

0.8340
72
Louisville

0.8269
73
Minnesota

0.8153
74
Western Mich.

0.8027
75
Colorado

0.7979
76
Washington

0.7949
77
Northwestern

0.7871
78
Central Mich.

0.7842
79
Georgia Tech

0.7637
80
Purdue

0.7627
81
Army

0.7627
82
Virginia

0.7579
83
Miami (OH)

0.7547
84
Idaho

0.7456
85
Troy

0.7418
86
Kent St
.

0.7240
87
Utah St
.

0.7141
88
Indiana

0.7062
89
FIU

0.6964
90
Duke

0.6931
91
Arkansas St
.

0.6914
92
Marshall

0.6902
93
Wake Forest

0.6880
94
UAB

0.6710
95
Rutgers

0.6629
96
Rice

0.6577
97
UCLA

0.6490
98
La.-Monroe

0.6440
99
Wyoming

0.6415
100
Washington St
.

0.6280
101
Tulane

0.6173
102
UTEP

0.6143
103
Kansas

0.6064
104
San Jose St
.

0.6055
105
UNLV

0.5998
106
Bowling Green

0.5736
107
Colorado St
.

0.5544
108
Vanderbilt

0.5328
109
Middle Tenn.

0.5178
110
North Texas

0.5043
111
La.-Lafayette

0.5018
112
Western Ky.

0.5004
113
Buffalo

0.4986
114
Fla. Atlantic

0.4842
115
Ball St
.

0.4467
116
Eastern Mich.

0.4451
117
Akron

0.4409
118
New Mexico

0.4367
119
New Mexico St
.

0.4314
120
Memphis

0.4296

Auburn is our number 1, and BCS opponent Oregon 6th. The Ducks rank so relatively low due to their super-easy schedule this year – 76th of 120 teams per the NCAA.

If you want to use these rankings to make a “prediction”, multiply the Power Ranking score (last number) by 27 and compare the values between teams. For example, Florida has a 32.73 (1.2124 x 27) and Penn State a 29.72 (1.1009 x 27) making Florida a 3 point favorite at a neutral location.

Notably, Auburn looks to be about a 9 point favorite over Oregon per this method.



*Methodology


(SD Ratio + SO Ratio+ W/L Record) * SOS = Power Value

Explained further –


SD Ratio is a ratio of each team’s scoring defense to the best scoring defense. This is made into a ratio that compares it to the top Scoring Defense.


SO Ratio is a ratio of each team’s scoring offense to the best scoring offense.


W/L record is a calculation of % record done as follows W/(W+(L*L)). In this way losses are given increasing weight. (1 loss is still “1”, but 2 losses are “4”, and so on).


We add the three components together. Then the number is multiplied by the strength of schedule (also a ratio) per the NCAA, The end result is the power ranking.