BCS Title Game Odds Model

I'm in a bit of a rush today, so I'll reveal my latest in this line of work. For more information, see past posts including the most recent.

 Here's what I have for an individual team's chance of going to the BCS title game -

Oregon	85.49%
TCU	59.34%
Auburn	39.01%
Boise	10.62%
LSU	2.76%
OK St	1.17%

"Other" would have a 1.7% chance here.

 Auburn's chances decrease this week as the projections I am using have the game against South Carolina narrowing to Auburn as a mere 3 point favorite.

TCU, on the other hand, is essentially done with their season (one easy game remaining at New Mexico), and need AU to lose to take that second spot.

Here are the chances of a particular match-up -

TCU-ORE	49.09%
AUII-ORE	15.40%
AU-ORE	11.93%
BSU-ORE	7.78%
TCU-AUII	4.92%
TCU-AU	4.06%
BSU-AUII	1.17%
BSU-AU	0.93%
LSU-TCU	0.90%
LSU-ORE	0.85%
LSU-BSU	0.52%
OK ST -TCU	0.37%
OK ST- ORE	0.35%
LSU-AUII	0.25%
OK ST-BSU	0.22%
LSU-AU	0.18%
OK ST-AU II	0.10%
OK ST - AU	0.07%
OK ST-LSU	0.06%

"AU II" represents a one-loss Auburn team playing for the title.

BCS Title Game Odds Model

In which Auburn’s chances increase greatly, and I rule out a couple of teams

The math behind what I’m doing with this is pretty simple – try to estimate the chances a team wins out, and thus the chances it plays for the “national” title. The hard part is deciding which teams fall where.

Oregon and Auburn are easy. The two teams are a strong 1-2 in the BCS, and if they win out they will play each other. It’s deciding who’s next in line if one of them should lose that’s tricky.

For this week’s model, I’ve come to a new conclusion that sharply increases Auburn’s chances of playing for the BCS title – I believe that if Auburn loses “respectably” to Alabama, and wins the SEC title, they will still play for the BCS title ahead of any other team. Here’s why –

-Auburn is a close second in the human polls, and a lock number 1 in the computers.

- Auburn, after playing Alabama, will have the nation’s toughest schedule. This is before playing for the SEC title game.

The hard part was including one loss Auburn in the spreadsheet I’ve created. My solution was to “create” a second team I called “Auburn II”. Auburn II is a team that loses a respectable game to Alabama then wins the SECC. (More on this in a moment)

Also, I did not model a title game between TCU and Boise State. In my opinion, the human voters simply won’t let it happen.

Next, I’ve virtually eliminated the Big 10 teams from any contention. Wisconsin, OSU and Michigan State are 7th, 9th and 12th in the BCS, and their computer rankings are even worse (12th, 13th and 10th, respectively). There’s simply not enough games left to be played for them to jump up.

Lastly, I still think some Big 12 team has a shot. Nebraska is 8th overall (and 8th in the computers), and Oklahoma State, though 10th overall, is 6th in the computers, tied with Boise State. I think the Cowboys are a long shot, but if they win out the humans should come around, and with a couple of key losses they could make it.

With Auburn & Auburn II combined, here are the estimated chances of a team playing for the BCS title -

Oregon	74.62%
Auburn	55.86%
TCU	43.88%
Boise State	18.00%
LSU	3.73%
Nebraska	1.87%
"Other"	1.28%
Oklahoma State	0.77%

“Other” in this case is mostly 6^th ranked Stanford, who would need 2 Oregon losses, so I didn’t model them specifically.

And here are the individual matchup choices. AUII is a 1-loss Auburn team –

TCU-ORE	24.90%
AUII-ORE	24.18%
BSU-ORE	13.37%
TCU-AUII	11.43%
AU-ORE	10.20%
TCU-AU	5.59%
BSU-AUII	2.34%
LSU-TCU	1.16%
LSU-ORE	1.16%
BSU-AU	1.10%
LSU-BSU	0.70%
NEB - ORE	0.58%
NEB-TCU	0.57%
LSU-AUII	0.42%
NEB-BSU	0.34%
OK ST -TCU	0.24%
OK ST- ORE	0.24%
NEB-AU II	0.21%
LSU-AU	0.18%
OK ST-BSU	0.14%
NEB - AU	0.09%
OK ST-AU II	0.09%
NEB-LSU	0.08%
OK ST - AU	0.04%
OK ST-LSU	0.03%

As for Oklahoma State – LSU, “So you’re saying there’s a chance?”

BCS Championship Game Odds Model

Our BCS Model currently predicts the following chances of these individual teams playing in the BCS Title game -

Oregon	76.89%
TCU	75.53%
LSU	12.96%
Nebraska	11.29%
Auburn	10.63%
Boise State	8.86%
Oklahoma State	1.76%
"Other"	2.08%

The odds of specific match-ups is as follows -

TCU-ORE	56.70%
LSU-TCU	6.14%
AU-ORE	5.81%
NEB - TCU	5.17%
LSU-ORE	4.90%
BSU-ORE	4.45%
NEB - ORE	4.43%
BSU-TCU	3.42%
TCU-AU	3.26%
NEB - LSU	0.87%
OK ST - TCU	0.84%
LSU-AU	0.61%
OK ST - ORE	0.60%
NEB - AU	0.51%
BSU-AU	0.35%
BSU-NEB	0.31%
BSU-LSU	0.27%
OK ST - LSU	0.18%
OK ST - AU	0.08%
BSU-OK ST	0.06%
"Other"	1.04%

A couple of Model notes/assumptions –

- Auburn is still thought to have a very poor chance at Alabama per the prediction experts (Sagarin has Alabama 5th, Auburn 11th in his predictor).

- I believe LSU is better positioned to go to the title game if they win out than Boise State. LSU is 4th in the computer polls to Boise’s 5th, and LSU has a cumulative SOS per the NCAA of 5th nationally, while Boise is ranked 58th.

- I also suspect, and this could be controversial, that either Nebraska or Oklahoma State, should they win out, will jump an unbeaten Boise State team. Oklahoma State is currently un-loved by poll voters, but ranked 6th in the computers just barely behind Boise State (.770 to .790). If the Cowboys win out they will have to beat Oklahoma, and have a “revenge” win against Nebraska. I think, under these circumstances, the computers will love them, and the human voters will come around. Right now Oklahoma State’s cumulative NCAA SOS is 27th nationally, and that is WITHOUT accounting for a Big 12 Championship game, which will put them in the top 10 SOS.

- I don’t see either Ohio State or Wisconsin having a chance. OSU is 15th in the computers, and their cumulative SOS is 46th. Wisconsin is 10th in the computers, with a cumulative SOS of 58th.

- In that 1.04% of “other” lies Stanford, who would depend entirely on Oregon and a couple of others losing.

So there you have it. The model says a BCS title game between Oregon and TCU is more likely than not. I also think this could be a compelling match-up of the offense of Oregon against the defense of TCU.

UPDATE: In response to reader comments, I would add that the reason TCU-Oregon is such an overwhelming favorite is based mostly upon the calculations that Auburn has such a poor chance of running the table. Sagarin has them as a 9 point underdog to 'Bama, while statfox puts as a 13 point dog. If they lose to 'Bama as expected, then play a weak SEC East team (are there any others?) I don't think theymake it.

It appears LSU, on the other hand, could make it even without playing for the SEC title. However the odds are pretty slim. The most likely LSU matchup, with TCU, would only occur if Oregon and Auburn lose, and only comes in at 6%. But look at it this way - LSU will end up with one of the nation's toughests SOS's (15th right now in Sagarin, the toughest of his top 10). If Oregon and Auburn somehow manage to lose, who else is going to benefit? The computers will love them, and human pollsters seeking to avoid a Boise-TCU title game will elevate them. In the unlikely event both Oregon and Auburn lose, I can't think it will be anyone else BUT LSU.

Also let's not get get too caught up in the 2nd six most likely match-up's - they are all about 5% chances, so getting wrapped up in their rankings is pointless.