We Might be in Trouble

Yeah, that’s a statement of the obvious, but let’s take a look at where Florida ranks nationally after 2 weeks of play.

If you just looked at our Scoring Offense and Scoring Defense you might not be that concerned. After all Florida presently ranks 33rd and 22nd in each, respectively.

But those stats are covering up some glaring weaknesses.

First of all those rankings come against Miami of Ohio and USF, not remotely the quality of teams we face ahead. Secondly they include defensive scoring in the Scoring Offense numbers.

Look what those scoring numbers are hiding –

Rushing Offense – 50th
Passing Offense – 104th
Total Offense – 92nd

And take a glance at the Gator defense by yardage so far -
Rushing Defense – 57th
Passing Defense – 28th
Total Defense – 28th

Once again, that is against Miami (OH) and USF.

We aren’t running the ball well, and we aren’t passing worth a damn.

But I’m most concerned about our rushing defense.

Tennessee has the 15th ranked rushing offense right now at 257 ypg. Volunteer Tauren Poole has already amassed 272 yards in two games.

Kentucky is next, ranked 30th in rushing averaging 218 yards ypg.

Then there’s Alabama with its two-headed rushing monster of Ingram and Richardson.

Plus, have you seen Marcus Lattimore of South Carolina? He only ran for 182 yards on 37 attempts against Georgia.

USF might very well have won that game had they not chosen ever to throw the ball.

If we can’t control the run in the SEC, we are finished. And we might just be finished sooner than we think.

A Trojan Horse

While the media engages in its predictable gushing about USC’s opener, I see something entirely different.

I see a fundamentally flawed team.

While the Trojans scored an impressive 49 points on the Warriors, they had 36 points scored against them. This was done by 2009’s 89th ranked offense, with averaged a measly 22.8 ppg. (In contrast Florida was 10th ranked with 35.9 ppg).

Even more astounding, the Warriors ranked up MORE total yardage than USC, 588 yards to 524. Hawaii passed for 459 yards against the Trojans. One can imagine that pass happy Pac Ten teams are licking their chops in anticipation.

In the extensive research I have done about the relationship of defense to BCS title winners, teams surrendering more than an average of 16 ppg have virtually no shot at the BCS title. Moreover, no team that has (absent overtime) had more than 30 points scored against it in a regular season contest has ever won the BCS title.

Obviously the Trojans aren't BCS eligible this season, but the prospects of them getting rolled by Pac Ten opposition is very likely.