Friday, September 3, 2010

A Trojan Horse

While the media engages in its predictable gushing about USC’s opener, I see something entirely different.

I see a fundamentally flawed team.

While the Trojans scored an impressive 49 points on the Warriors, they had 36 points scored against them. This was done by 2009’s 89th ranked offense, with averaged a measly 22.8 ppg. (In contrast Florida was 10th ranked with 35.9 ppg).

Even more astounding, the Warriors ranked up MORE total yardage than USC, 588 yards to 524. Hawaii passed for 459 yards against the Trojans. One can imagine that pass happy Pac Ten teams are licking their chops in anticipation.

In the extensive research I have done about the relationship of defense to BCS title winners, teams surrendering more than an average of 16 ppg have virtually no shot at the BCS title. Moreover, no team that has (absent overtime) had more than 30 points scored against it in a regular season contest has ever won the BCS title.

Obviously the Trojans aren't BCS eligible this season, but the prospects of them getting rolled by Pac Ten opposition is very likely.

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