Friday, October 22, 2010

Is Boise State Screwed?

You say that like it’s a bad thing…

You’re hearing this here first – Boise State has virtually no chance to play for the BCS title.

And it doesn’t matter a bit what they do from here on out.

Let’s go with the facts we know so far:

Boise State is currently ranked 3rd in the BCS standings. This is based on a 2nd ranking in both the human polls (Coaches’ Poll and Harris Poll), and an average ranking of 7th in the Computer Polls.

The math adds up as follows –

The BCS uses percentage of total points to calculate a score. Right now Boise gets .9504 for the Harris Poll, .9390 for the Coaches Poll, and .780 for the Computer polls. Average is .8898, putting Boise in 3rd.

Here is your top 5 –

1 Oklahoma .9215
2 Oregon .8921
3 Boise State .8898
4 Auburn .8641
5 TCU .8573  

Oklahoma gets the top spot by being 4th in the Harris and 3rd in the Coaches’ but 1st in the Computers. If the same scoring system were utilized without computers we would have this –

1          Oregon .98315
2          Boise State       .9447
3          Oklahoma        .8922
4          TCU    .886
5          Auburn .8462

Not only is Oklahoma 3rd, it’s a distant 3rd.  In other words, the computers alone pull up the Sooners to first place on average.

The computers also crush Boise, taking .0549 off their average.

Why are the Broncos so low in the computer rankings? After all, Boise State currently has the 3rd best Scoring Offense, and the 3rd Best Scoring Defense, in the NCAA. Their margin of victory is a close second to Oregon’s. So their prolific scoring isn’t helping them in the computers.

No, there is only one reason the Broncos are 7th overall – their lousy Strength of Schedule

Not all of the computer polls reveal (or perhaps even utilize) SOS. But in three that do the Broncos presently rank as follows –

Sagarin – 55th
Anderson & Hester (A&H) – 49th
Colley – 73rd

Notably, this is the Broncos rankings AFTER the toughest part of their schedule is behind them. There are no teams left like Virginia Tech or Oregon State on their schedule.

The reason we are sure SOS is the main weakness of the Broncos in the computers is fleshed out by a comparison to the other teams ranked above or near them by the computers. The following grid shows the BCS computers top 9 ranked teams, their NCAA SOS, and their SOS in both A&H and Colley –


Computer
Team
NCAA SOS
A&H
Colley
Ranking

Current
SOS
SOS





1
Oklahoma
20
29
13
2
LSU
15
24
28
3
Auburn
31
27
33
4
Michigan State
29
43
53
5
TCU
61
65
77
6
Missouri
26
48
44
7
Boise State
73
49
73
8
Oregon
111
82
113
9
Oklahoma State
63
76
89


Clearly the various team’s SOSs lines up very nicely with their present computer rankings. (In A&H, for instance, LSU is their number 1, Auburn their number 2).

So what can we expect for their future SOS?

The following is going to be necessarily based on speculation, as most computer polls don’t reveal their methods of calculation. Moreover, we have to guess as to what the schedule strength of the remaining teams on Boise State’s schedule will be.

However we can make some solid estimates. For one, Boise is only remaining opponents are in their conference, the WAC. Boise’s remaining schedule is –

Oct 26 vs Louisiana Tech
Nov 6 vs Hawaii
Nov 12 @Idaho
Nov 19 vs Fresno State
Nov 26 @Nevada
Dec 4 vs Utah State

So what future SOS can we expect from this schedule?

Obviously, not a very high one.  But looking at Boise’s future SOS in a vacuum isn’t as helpful as looking at the SOS’s of their main competitors for a BCS title game – the 8 other undefeated FBS teams (still in the order of their current BCS computer rankings).



Computer
Team
NCAA SOS
Ranking

Future



1
Oklahoma
14
2
LSU
5
3
Auburn
6
4
Michigan State
42
5
TCU
68
6
Missouri
24
7
Boise State
55
8
Oregon
34
9
Oklahoma State
4


Almost every team here has a future schedule per the NCAA that is better than the present, with the exceptions of Michigan State and TCU. And with the exception of TCU, all of them are better than Boise’s. Everything else remaining stable, Boise State’s SOS standing in the computers should stay about the same by early December as it is now.

Of course, everything WON’T remain stable. We know that Oklahoma plays both Missouri and Oklahoma State, and LSU and Auburn face off this weekend. Can we predict what the BCS might look like come early December?

We can try. Before getting hung up on what the human and computer rankings are, we need to focus on how the BCS is formulated. Rather than an average of rankings, it is an average of calculations. The calculations are all based on a number derived from vote placement. For example, a 1st place vote in the polls is worth 25, 2nd place 24, and so on. These are added together and made into a percentage of a perfect score. In the case of Oregon, the 1st place team in both human polls right now, this percentage is .9819 in the Harris Poll, meaning they have 98.19% of a “perfect” (all number 1 votes possible) score.

So all 1st place rankings aren’t created equal.

We have no way of knowing what the percentages will look like come December. But we can look at the average ratios for the rankings based on past polls. Here is the average percentages by ranking (top 10) in the human polls for the past 5 year’s final poll –


1
0.9922
2
0.9486
3
0.9129
4
0.8569
5
0.8269
6
0.7987
7
0.7495
8
0.7261
9
0.6741
10
0.6409


Oregon, the number one in the human polls, has an average of 0.9832 right now (human polls only). This is lower than average, but even in the chaos of 2007 Ohio State had the same 0.9832 human poll average.

So, recognizing Boise will likely never have a great computer poll percentage , what do they need by the humans to overcome this?

Right now the Bronco’s computer percentage is 0.780. If we give them the benefit of the doubt and give them a 1st place ranking in December based on historical averages (a VERY generous scenario) and today’s computer ratio we get –

Average of (0.9922, 0.9922, 0.7800) = 0.9215

Where would a 0.9215 have landed a team in the last 5 BCS final (pre-Title game) polls?

2009 – 3rd
2008 – 4th
2007 – 3rd
2006 – 4th
2005 – 3rd

In other words, a team with a very high ranking (and percentage) in both human polls but a 7th or so ranking in the computers probably doesn’t play in the title game.

The 0.780 final computer percentage for Boise isn't necessarily far fetched. Historically, we have a comparison – and that’s the 2009 Boise team. In the first BCS standings of ’09, Boise State had a BCS computer percentage of 0.0840, or 5th overall. Much like this year, Boise had played the “meat” of their schedule already, including a win over eventual 10-3 Oregon. By the end of the regular season Boise’s BCS computer percentage was 0.7800, or 6th overall. This was after playing their weaker conference schedule. Notably, their record then (and presumably, this year) was undefeated at all times.  Looking at this, a final of 0.7800 this season may be too high.

Now, quite obviously, there is a lot of speculation involved in these calculations. A total chaos scenario that has all the BCS conference teams with one loss probably gets Boise high enough in the computers to slip in. That said, the calculations I used to get the 0.9215 final average were VERY generous to Boise on the human poll side. To get that high a human poll ranking/percentage, Oregon is going to have to lose a game. (The team I saw last night (Thursday) didn’t look like it will.) Moreover, with virtually all the other contenders standing to strengthen their computer standings, (not to mention at least one 1-loss team jumping Boise in the computer polls eventually, and probably more) Boise is in a serious predicament at this point in time. And if there are 2 undefeated BCS conference teams, they haven’t got a chance in Hades, regardless of human rankings.

So to the defenders of the current BCS and BCS conference teams – thank the machines. In this case they are going to keep the humans in check.

1 comment:

Trader Rick said...

I want to know where is the love for UF in these polls. Our team should get some points for trying hard! What? They're not? Nevermind. Hey, that's not fair, they're just little kids!! And another thing, can you imagine the feelings of coaching staffs of unranked teams, like Florida? They feel bad.Real bad. Can't we get some sympathy votes here? OR, points for past Championships? What about Alabama??? Where's the compassion in the BCS system??

This whole system is NOT fair--there is no factor for having to play againt LUCKY coaches like Les Miles.. See, all factors are not taken into account.

This whole BCS deal needs to be revamped. Seriously I'd have Florida ranked fifth, based on , among other things, Red Zone heartbreak stats, Chagrin at watching former players win Heismans and Championships for your rivals, Playing really fair sometimes, Enduring wrong stupid officiating that goes against you index, stadium attendance, tailgating beer consumption stats, former players in the NFL, and academic grade point averages in sports related subjects, and completion of court ordered community service hours...yeah.

GO GATUH!