Monday, October 18, 2010

Week 7 Power Rankings

We are at the point in the season where the Power Rankings usually begin to have some predictive value. *(For methodology see end)

I’m not so sure here.

First of all, undefeated Oregon comes in a dismal 43rd, which I don’t believe in the least bit. This is due entirely to their 111th ranked schedule (per the NCAA). The Ducks have played teams with a cumulative 6-15 record (ex Oregon). However their future schedule ranks 34th, so they should improve.

Yes, that’s Missouri at number 1. I don’t much believe that either. But consider –

2nd ranked Scoring Defense
24th ranked Scoring Offense
26th ranked SOS

Based on those criteria, the Tigers of Missouri are number 1.

After Missouri I pretty much like the rest though I might quibble with order, except for the presence of Hawaii.

1 Missouri 1.715
2 LSU 1.582
3 Oklahoma 1.564
4 Michigan St. 1.506
5 TCU 1.501
6 Stanford 1.496
7 Auburn 1.459
8 Boise St. 1.386
9 Iowa 1.338
10 South Carolina 1.301
11 Nebraska 1.283
12 Ohio St. 1.261
13 Kansas St. 1.234
14 Oklahoma St. 1.230
15 Mississippi St. 1.196
16 Arizona 1.191
17 West Virginia 1.190
18 Hawaii 1.167
19 Arkansas 1.166
20 Alabama 1.157
21 North Carolina St. 1.146
22 North Carolina 1.115
23 Wisconsin 1.101
24 Michigan 1.084
25 Illinois 1.078

Other notables include –

26. FSU
28. Florida
32. Miami

So, if at this point I have reservations, why show this at all? Well, for one, it has worked very well in the past, and changing my methodology based on my feelings seems wrong. Perhaps Missouri is that good. Perhaps Oregon is way over rated.

On a final note, these same Power Ratings indicated Mississippi State would beat Florida, a point I purposefully neglected to note last week. So maybe there IS something here afterall.


(SD Ratio + SO Ratio+ W/L Record) * SOS = Power Value

Explained further –

SD Ratio is a ratio of each team’s scoring defense to the best scoring defense. This is made into a ratio that compares it to the top Scoring Defense.

SO Ratio is a ratio of each team’s scoring offense to the best scoring offense.

W/L record is a calculation of % record done as follows W/(W+(L*L)). In this way losses are given increasing weight. (1 loss is still “1”, but 2 losses are “4”, and so on).

We add the three components together. Then the number is multiplied by the strength of schedule (also a ratio) per the NCAA, The end result is the power ranking.

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