Wednesday, November 24, 2010

BCS Title Game Odds Model

I'm in a bit of a rush today, so I'll reveal my latest in this line of work. For more information, see past posts including the most recent.

 Here's what I have for an individual team's chance of going to the BCS title game -


Oregon
85.49%
TCU
59.34%
Auburn
39.01%
Boise
10.62%
LSU
2.76%
OK St
1.17%


"Other" would have a 1.7% chance here.

 Auburn's chances decrease this week as the projections I am using have the game against South Carolina narrowing to Auburn as a mere 3 point favorite.

TCU, on the other hand, is essentially done with their season (one easy game remaining at New Mexico), and need AU to lose to take that second spot.

Here are the chances of a particular match-up -


TCU-ORE
49.09%
AUII-ORE
15.40%
AU-ORE
11.93%
BSU-ORE
7.78%
TCU-AUII
4.92%
TCU-AU
4.06%
BSU-AUII
1.17%
BSU-AU
0.93%
LSU-TCU
0.90%
LSU-ORE
0.85%
LSU-BSU
0.52%
OK ST
-TCU
0.37%
OK ST- ORE
0.35%
LSU-AUII
0.25%
OK ST-BSU
0.22%
LSU-AU
0.18%
OK ST-AU II
0.10%
OK ST
- AU
0.07%
OK ST-LSU
0.06%


"AU II" represents a one-loss Auburn team playing for the title.

1 comment:

jimmy J said...

I'm watching the Oregon vs Oregon ST. Not impressed with Oregon at all and do not think they could run against either Wisconsin or Ohio State, Ohio State is a better team than the one that mauled the Ducks last year in the Rose Bowl. This BCS crap is just that, crap!