Monday, November 8, 2010

Is There Anybody Out There?

I've started working on my BCS Title Game Odds Model for this week, and I've hit a bit of a problem. Part of my modeling involves my best estimation as to who might play for the title if certain teams fail. This week, I'm having more trouble than usual making my estimation.

It's completely obvious that if Oregon and Auburn win out, they play for the title. I also believe that, failing one of those two, TCU will take the next slot.

After that I'm not so sure.

Right now Boise State is 4th in the BCS, but 5th in the computer polls (and 4th in both human polls). As suspected they have not gained strength in the computers, actually losing a bit in the computers (.800 to .790) over the last week. Their schedule doesn't get any harder.

TCU's lead on Boise, unlike last week's, is now significant over Boise (.9259 to .8662). Their computer lead is even more so (.950 to .790). They are a firm 3rd. Boise's lead over LSU, however, may not be so firm. The question is - can LSU jump Boise?

LSU is 4th in the computers, with an average of .890, .100 better than the Bronco's. They are currently 6th in the human polls, but stand to move up if anyone ahead of them falls. A loss by either Oregon (unlikely) or Auburn (likely) will move them up in the human polls if they run the table. And with a game remaining at Arkansas, their computer rating will hold up.

I'm thinking a LSU 5th or better in the human polls, and 4th in the computers, may very well jump Boise.

What about the others? Anyone else out there?

Well one-losses Nebraska and Oklahoma State intrigue me. The Cowboys have lost only to Nebraska, and they have a very real chance of facing them again in the Big 12 title game. Would the pollsters really allow a one-loss Big 12 team - and one in Oklahoma State that avenged their only loss - not to play for the BCS title ahead of Boise State? I can't imagine it.

But honestly I don't know the answer. I'm inclined to jump LSU over Boise for my model, but Nebraska and Oklahoma State just seem to far off. Don't they?


Trader Rick said...

Since we're not in it, we really don't care.

Anonymous said...

You know as well as I do that if it were Oklahoma (& not State) or Texas, there wouldn't even be any discussion about whether they should jump Boise & TCU; in fact, there would be SOME pollsters who might even put them ahead of Oregon. But since it's "only" OSU, they're somehow deemed less deserving of the respect by the human voters.
If Oklahoma State wins out & avenges their loss to Nebraska, they will soar up the computer charts, & certainly SHOULD be considered for a MNC slot. The "unknown" here is whether the monkeys...err, humans...take note of the teams' actual on-field accomplishments before they vote.