Monday, November 1, 2010

The Tilt-a-Wheel

I kybosh Missouri, and the season spins out of control

Nothing is more dangerous than my approval, as the Missouri Tigers found out after I bestowed them with a number 1 BlogPoll ranking. I still believe the Pollsters are treating them a bit harshly by placing them 14th in the AP (they have the nation’s 3rd toughest schedule, while highly lauded Oregon comes in at 101) but their BCS dreams are all but kaput. Moreover, how to you rank an Oklahoma team ahead of them they soundly beat just last weekend?

Oregon has finally found quite a bit more love from the computers, as they are propelled to 2nd overall by the machines. Were the computers deciding it all, here would by your top 20 –



1
Auburn
2
Oregon
3
TCU
4
Missouri
5
Boise State
6
Nebraska
7
LSU
8
Oklahoma
9
Utah
10
Michigan State
11
Wisconsin
12
Stanford
13
Arizona
14
Oklahoma State
15
Alabama
16
Ohio State
17
Iowa
18
Mississippi State
19
Arkansas
20
Baylor

Unlike the humans, Missouri still gets quite a bit of love in cyberland.

Previously I opined that Boise State was virtually shut out of the BCS title game by virtue of the computer polls. Now, with Michigan State and Missouri falling, I’m not so sure of my surety. At a 0.780 percentage ranking in the computers, my analysis seemed correct. But to my surprise, they’ve moved up to 0.800. That would give them, per my previous work, a 0.9281 average, which WOULD HAVE placed them 2nd in 2007. I would note two things –

1. This is a year that could look a lot like the craziness of 2007 (2 loss LSU to BCS)

2. If undefeated major conference teams keep losing, I think Boise may get in as the computers move them up.

I also think my work on BCS Championship Game Odds Model may show them the favorite for getting to the title game.

So if you were rooting against Missouri and Michigan State, and hate the idea of Boise going to the big game, your rooting was misplaced.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Exactly as predicted: ONE Mizzou loss = Bye-Bye, BCS

Anonymous said...

"...how to you rank an Oklahoma team ahead of them they soundly beat just last weekend?"
The same way the computers put Missouri ahead of the Nebraska team that just manhandled them?

Mergz said...

Anon 2:28

Point taken.