Friday, September 24, 2010

(Very) Preliminary Power Rankings

In our new home here at Boys of Old Florida we are going to utilize the Power Rankings methodology I created over at Saurian Sagacity. It is transparent and virtually unbiased, and has done not only an excellent job of predicting winners in the past it has always agreed with the eventual BCS Champion.

(SD Ratio + SO Ratio+ W/L Record) * SOS = Power Value

Explained further –

SD Ratio is a ratio of each team’s scoring defense to the best scoring defense. This is made into a ratio that compares it to the top Scoring Defense.

SO Ratio is a ratio of each team’s scoring offense to the best scoring offense.

W/L record is a simple calculation of % record.

We add the three components together. Then the number is multiplied by the strength of schedule (also a ratio) per the NCAA, The end result is the power ranking.

Our problem at this point is the SOS value. With so few games it is virtually nonsensical (too many teams with either perfect 1.000 records, or totally imperfect 0.000 records. When you multiply 0.000 by the rest (like Oregon and Ohio State have) you get 0, which foils the whole process). So I am eliminating this element at this point.

We usually wait until the 6th game to release this. However I am doing it early for 2 reasons –

- I DO look at this for my own resume ranking. If you look at the results now you can see most/many of the teams I ranked.

- I think it has value to show who is pretty solid right now, even if imperfect.

Thus, here is our top 25 (with Power Value) –

1 Oregon 3.000
2 Alabama 2.393
3 Stanford 2.137
4 TCU 2.067
5 Oklahoma St. 2.061
6 Arizona 2.043
7 Nebraska 2.027
8 Nevada 2.017
9 Rutgers 2.015
10 Ohio St. 1.998
11 Texas A&M 1.953
12 Kentucky 1.944
13 Arkansas 1.943
14 Indiana 1.934
15 Utah 1.911
16 Boise St. 1.907
17 South Carolina 1.850
18 Florida 1.847
19 LSU 1.837
20 North Carolina St. 1.837
21 Missouri 1.831
22 Texas 1.829
23 Northwestern 1.827
24 West Virginia 1.797
25 Fresno St. 1.776

Yes, that is a “perfect” Power Value for Oregon right now, as they have the nation’s best Scoring Offense, Scoring Defense, and are unbeaten.

So what can we glean from this?

- Alabama looks as good here as to the eye.

- Ohio State, despite their overall 2nd ranking, is behind teams like Rutgers and Oklahoma State statistically.

- Don’t underestimate Kentucky

- Boise State, despite an easy schedule thus far, isn’t putting up statistically impressive results.

- Florida and Texas are likely over ranked by pollsters.

Other teams of note –

28. Oklahoma
30. Michigan
31. Auburn
33. USC
44. FSU
58. Da “U”
64. Pitt
70. UGA
83. ND
84. Tennessee

And, at 120, the nation’s worst team – Colorado State

I’ll try to release the update results Monday so my thinking for the BlogPoll voting will be more apparent.

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