Thursday, October 14, 2010

And Your BCS Title Winner is …


Here at Boys of Old Florida we try to be ahead of the curve. For years (the Saurian Sagacity days) I’ve compiled what statistical characteristics are common among BCS title winners. In sum, you are looking for teams that are ranked near the top in –

Scoring Defense
Total Defense
Passing Efficiency Defense
Passing Efficiency

With 6 games in the books, here are the four teams that look to be on track to achieve – at least statistically – what past BCS title holders have done.

Ohio State

Yes, I’ve maligned their competition so far (86th SOS per the NCAA). But their current rankings in the all-important categories above are –

Scoring Defense – 6th
Total Defense – 3rd
Passing Efficiency Defense – 3rd
Passing Efficiency – 10th

The Buckeyes are well within what we would expect in these statistics for a BCS Champ.

Route to the Title Game – Win out, they’re already number 1 in both polls.

Roadblocks – Toughest part of their schedule lies ahead (which isn’t saying much)

Nebraska

No one is much talking about Nebraska as a title contender, but their stats say they might be –

Scoring Defense – 4th
Total Defense – 12th
Passing Efficiency Defense – 1st
Passing Efficiency – 26th

The Huskers Passing Efficiency is right at the upper limit of what we might expect, but their other categories look strong.

Route to the Title Game – A straight shot. Win the Big 12 North, then win the title game. The Cornhuskers are 4th in the Coaches Poll with 2 first place votes already. Destiny is in their own hands.

Roadblocks – Toughest remaining regular season game next weekend at Oklahoma State, or *perhaps* Texas this weekend. Would face either the same Oklahoma State or Oklahoma in the Big 12 Title game.

Iowa

Don’t sleep on the Hawkeyes. They have a narrow, out-of-conference loss at Arizona, and have an outside shot at the title game.

Scoring Defense – 1st
Total Defense – 4th
Passing Efficiency Defense – 10th
Passing Efficiency – 3rd

Iowa has maybe the strongest statistical case of these 4.

Route to the Title Game – Trickier than the first two, but not impossible. They have games at Michigan, than Wisconsin and Michigan State at home. Win those and they will move up nicely in the rankings for their home game against current number 1 Ohio State. Beat OSU and, with a couple of other breaks, a trip to the BCS title game is within reach.

Roadblocks – See Route above. They have a tough remaining schedule, and are currently 14th in the Coaches Poll

TCU

The Horned Frogs have the statistics that count –

Scoring Defense – 2nd
Total Defense – 1st
Passing Efficiency Defense – 15th
Passing Efficiency – 21st

Route to the Title Game – Presently 5th in the Coaches Poll, TCU still has games against ranked opponents Air Force and Utah. Win the remaining games and they can leapfrog Boise State in the BCS formula, with some breaks their way.

Roadblocks – Their fate isn’t really in their hands – it’s in the hands of the BCS Computers. Plus they remain in the shadow of pre-season BCS buster darling Boise State. I think they would need a Boise loss and some real luck to get to the title game.


And there you have it folks – one of the above will be your BCS Title winner in 2010.

Unless, of course, they’re not.

2 comments:

Jams said...

Very interesting stuff. I'd love to see another post showing teams that meet all but one criterion, or that we could reasonably expect to finish the season meeting all the criteria.

Also, doesn't Nebraska play Texas, not Oklahoma State this weekend?

Mergz said...

Jams,

You are right sir on Nebraska.

Teams missing only 1 did include Alabama. Unfortunately I've erased that spreadsheet.