Wednesday, October 13, 2010

What I see in Missouri

Brian called me out for ranking Missouri 4th in my BlogPoll, or more specifically – “I can't even begin to figure what caused Boys of Old Florida to shoot Missouri up to No. 4 from 15th after they beat a sad-sack Colorado team. Illinois beating Penn State?”

First of all, as a resume voter, I don’t believe in “shooting up” or “shooting down”. Where a team was last week is irrelevant to me, and I don’t believe teams move “up or down” like stocks in the market, but more that they are placed exactly where they belong on a weekly basis.

As for Missouri if I’m wrong, I think I was more wrong last week than this week. Consider –

26th Best Scoring Offense in the NCAA (ahead of Alabama, Oklahoma, Arizona, South Carolina or Florida).

3rd best Scoring Defense (behind only Iowa and TCU).

Tied for 15th for Toughest Schedules per the NCAA

1 San Jose St. 0.88235294
2 Oregon St. 0.82352941
3 Illinois 0.8125
4 South Carolina 0.78947368
5 Iowa St. 0.77777778
6 Wyoming 0.76190476
7 California 0.75
8 Colorado St. 0.70833333
9 Washington St. 0.69565217
10 Cincinnati 0.6875
10 Arizona St. 0.6875
12 Oklahoma 0.68421053
12 Virginia Tech 0.68421053
12 North Carolina 0.68421053
15 LSU 0.66666667
15 Florida 0.66666667
15 Kansas St. 0.66666667
15 Missouri 0.66666667
15 Miami (FL) 0.66666667
15 Arizona 0.66666667
15 Notre Dame 0.66666667

Much has been made of the schedules of LSU, Florida and Miami. Well, undefeated Missouri is equal to them by opponent’s record.

The counter argument would be that the only worthy opponents on Missouri’s schedule have been Illinois and Colorado, and that those two teams are less than worthy in their own right. Well Illinois just hammered Penn State (remember Penn State, 14th preseason?) and held Ohio State its lowest offensive output of the year. Colorado did beat Georgia, and Missouri shut them out.

And before you go casting dispersions on anyone’s opponents, remember Oregon has played teams thus far with an opponent’s record of 0.03000, or 6-14, which is ranked 110th by the NCAA. Ohio State ranks 86th with opponent’s records of 0.0490901, or 9-13. Yet no one seems to suggest that these consensus one and two teams have played soft schedules.

At this point we really don’t know how good any of these teams are. If Missouri loses I’ll adjust accordingly. But they certainly deserve better right now than a 20th ranking in the BlogPoll.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Oppents record is not equal to strength of schedule. That bad assumption has screwed up your ballot big time. Get a clue.

Mergz said...

Anon- Thanks for your thoughtful critique of my position. After all, group-think is where its at!

TheCallahanKid said...

If you don't go by opponents' record, then you go by "bad assumption(s)" on how good you think the opponents are. Nice job Mergz keep up the good work. Resume voting is the best and it will usually give the same top teams - maybe just not in the same order.

Anonymous said...

BTW, Anon: What are "oppents"?

The Candlemaker said...

While #4 does seem a little high to me, I do think that Missouri should be in the top 10 at this point. If they lose, then they drop. Simple as that, and I wish more people would fill out their ballots like you do and not just based on previous rank.

Mergz said...

@Candlemaker -

4 may be a bit too high. Interestingly many of the computer polls have them well within the top 10, I think as high as 6th.