BCS Watch

I did a post last week about how unlikely it is Boise State will play for the BCS title based on their rankings – both currently and prospectively – in the computer polls of the BCS.

Well we have another week “in the books”, and a new BCS. Let’s take a look at what we have now.

Boise State – No movement. The Bronco’s BCS average last week was .8898 for 3rd place. This week it’s .8846, and still in 3rd place. Conventional wisdom holds that Boise needs the teams ahead of them to lose, and I don’t totally disagree. Yet, with Oklahoma’s loss not only did Boise not move, they lost ground between themselves and the number 4 slot (now TCU).

Their problem continues to be the computer polls, which have them 6th this week (up 1 slot), but with the exact same .780 percentile.

Oregon – The Ducks are still 2nd in the BCS yet remain very curious, to say the least. Why? The computer polls hate them, with an 8th ranking and .740 percentile. As noted in my Power Rankings post, they have one of the worst SOS’s in the nation. If not for their extremely strong showings in the human polls (.9975 and .9919), they would be ranked far lower.

There is a fundamental difference here between the machines and the humans. The Duck’s schedule will improve, so one might expect their BCS standings to strengthen if they keep on winning.

Missouri – The Tigers of Missouri are the Rodney Dangerfield of the BCS – no respect. The computers have them a solid 2 overall, but the human pollsters drag them down all the way 6th in the BCS with 8th place rankings in both polls.

This highlights the flaws in human polls. Imagine if Texas was 7-0, having just come off a solid win against Oklahoma (the previous BCS number 1). Moreover, imagine if Texas had the 8th Toughest Schedule per the NCAA. Would poll voters be ranking them 8th?

Auburn – 3rd in both the human polls, but number 1 overall, with the computers to thank for it. Moreover, I agree. These Tigers have the 10th Toughest Schedule, and just defeated an unbeaten team. They should be number 1 (wait, who does that sound like? Well Missouri, that’s who!)

This is going to be a fascinating year for the BCS, probably leaving almost no one satisfied. Since my Gators are out of it, I look forward to the train wreck.

What I see in Missouri

Brian called me out for ranking Missouri 4th in my BlogPoll, or more specifically – “I can't even begin to figure what caused Boys of Old Florida to shoot Missouri up to No. 4 from 15th after they beat a sad-sack Colorado team. Illinois beating Penn State?”

First of all, as a resume voter, I don’t believe in “shooting up” or “shooting down”. Where a team was last week is irrelevant to me, and I don’t believe teams move “up or down” like stocks in the market, but more that they are placed exactly where they belong on a weekly basis.

As for Missouri if I’m wrong, I think I was more wrong last week than this week. Consider –

26th Best Scoring Offense in the NCAA (ahead of Alabama, Oklahoma, Arizona, South Carolina or Florida).

3rd best Scoring Defense (behind only Iowa and TCU).

Tied for 15th for Toughest Schedules per the NCAA –

1 San Jose St. 0.88235294
2 Oregon St. 0.82352941
3 Illinois 0.8125
4 South Carolina 0.78947368
5 Iowa St. 0.77777778
6 Wyoming 0.76190476
7 California 0.75
8 Colorado St. 0.70833333
9 Washington St. 0.69565217
10 Cincinnati 0.6875
10 Arizona St. 0.6875
12 Oklahoma 0.68421053
12 Virginia Tech 0.68421053
12 North Carolina 0.68421053
15 LSU 0.66666667
15 Florida 0.66666667
15 Kansas St. 0.66666667
15 Missouri 0.66666667
15 Miami (FL) 0.66666667
15 Arizona 0.66666667
15 Notre Dame 0.66666667

Much has been made of the schedules of LSU, Florida and Miami. Well, undefeated Missouri is equal to them by opponent’s record.

The counter argument would be that the only worthy opponents on Missouri’s schedule have been Illinois and Colorado, and that those two teams are less than worthy in their own right. Well Illinois just hammered Penn State (remember Penn State, 14th preseason?) and held Ohio State its lowest offensive output of the year. Colorado did beat Georgia, and Missouri shut them out.

And before you go casting dispersions on anyone’s opponents, remember Oregon has played teams thus far with an opponent’s record of 0.03000, or 6-14, which is ranked 110th by the NCAA. Ohio State ranks 86th with opponent’s records of 0.0490901, or 9-13. Yet no one seems to suggest that these consensus one and two teams have played soft schedules.

At this point we really don’t know how good any of these teams are. If Missouri loses I’ll adjust accordingly. But they certainly deserve better right now than a 20th ranking in the BlogPoll.