Monday, October 25, 2010

BCS Watch

I did a post last week about how unlikely it is Boise State will play for the BCS title based on their rankings – both currently and prospectively – in the computer polls of the BCS.

Well we have another week “in the books”, and a new BCS. Let’s take a look at what we have now.

Boise State – No movement. The Bronco’s BCS average last week was .8898 for 3rd place. This week it’s .8846, and still in 3rd place. Conventional wisdom holds that Boise needs the teams ahead of them to lose, and I don’t totally disagree. Yet, with Oklahoma’s loss not only did Boise not move, they lost ground between themselves and the number 4 slot (now TCU).

Their problem continues to be the computer polls, which have them 6th this week (up 1 slot), but with the exact same .780 percentile.

Oregon – The Ducks are still 2nd in the BCS yet remain very curious, to say the least. Why? The computer polls hate them, with an 8th ranking and .740 percentile. As noted in my Power Rankings post, they have one of the worst SOS’s in the nation. If not for their extremely strong showings in the human polls (.9975 and .9919), they would be ranked far lower.

There is a fundamental difference here between the machines and the humans. The Duck’s schedule will improve, so one might expect their BCS standings to strengthen if they keep on winning.

Missouri – The Tigers of Missouri are the Rodney Dangerfield of the BCS – no respect. The computers have them a solid 2 overall, but the human pollsters drag them down all the way 6th in the BCS with 8th place rankings in both polls.

This highlights the flaws in human polls. Imagine if Texas was 7-0, having just come off a solid win against Oklahoma (the previous BCS number 1). Moreover, imagine if Texas had the 8th Toughest Schedule per the NCAA. Would poll voters be ranking them 8th?

Auburn – 3rd in both the human polls, but number 1 overall, with the computers to thank for it. Moreover, I agree. These Tigers have the 10th Toughest Schedule, and just defeated an unbeaten team. They should be number 1 (wait, who does that sound like? Well Missouri, that’s who!)

This is going to be a fascinating year for the BCS, probably leaving almost no one satisfied. Since my Gators are out of it, I look forward to the train wreck.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Calculations by some of the other BCS "gurus" show that ANY of the SEC West contenders (Auburn, Alabam, OR LSU) that wins the SECCG would finish above Boise---even with a loss.

Which would effectively leave Boise fighting Mich.State, Missouri, and almost ALL of the BCS-conference 1-loss teams for ONE spot.

Boise's only REAL hope looks like they need Alabama to beat Auburn, and then lose the SECCG, and ALL of the other contenders to lose at least one more.

Even in THIS crazy season, that's a LOT to ask of the football gods (unless Les Miles was coaching Boise...then it'd probably be about a 50-50 shot).