Yard Sale

For those of you who enjoying skiing, a ski accident that involves gear spread all over the slopes is known (some affectionately) as a “yard sale”.

College football is closing in on a yard sale of its own.

For years we’ve been approaching the day when a non-BCS school might compete for a BCS championship. Never mind the absurdity of that statement on its face (could a non-SEC school win an SEC championship?), that day looks to have “done approached”. If non-BCS signatories can play for the “title”, why stop there? James Madison? Anyone, anyone?

Normally fans of the BCS (of which I am not one) would root for Auburn and Oregon to merely win out, thus avoiding this deleterious fate. At least in the case of Oregon, that seems like a safe plan to follow.

As for Auburn, well, that seems to be another matter.

The Cam Newton “situation” is far from sorted out, but it appears at least plausible that Newton is an ineligible player.* Auburn also appears to have gone “all-in”, and will play Newton regardless (it’s reasonably to assume they have no chance of winning otherwise).

So we have the very real possibility that Auburn, should they win out, could be stripped of its wins at some later date. Newton, currently the Heisman favorite, may have to give up that award a-la Reggie Bush.**

So for those that want a clean and conclusive ending to this NCAA season, Auburn may not provide that. So root for Alabama, right?

Well, if ‘Bama wins, we are going to get TCU and/or Boise State against Oregon.

So this is where college football finds itself as of now –

- Oregon wins out all the way, and the BCS marches blithely on for another day, or,

- Auburn wins out, and the term “tainted title” takes on a whole new meaning, or,

- TCU/Boise State statute-of-liberty’s their way to a BCS title, despite not being a BCS team, and the whole BCS is forever changed.

For those of us who are non-BCS fans, grab your popcorn. This is going to be a doozy.

*Without getting exhaustive, it appears that someone soliciting benefits on behalf of a student-athlete is against NCAA rules, which Cecil Newton appears to have done. I’m not suggesting Auburn did anything wrong in the recruitment of Cam, just that Cam may be ineligible. (Think Reggie Bush, USC).

**The Bush incident stained the Heisman. Newton may befoul it totally.

Welcome to the End Times

Alabama loses at LSU, eliminating the Tide from BCS title contention.

Oklahoma loses big to Texas A&M, also ending their BCS Championship hopes.

TCU embarrasses previously unbeaten Utah.

I give you the End Times!

We will know more when the new BCS rankings come out, but I now suspect that TCU, and not Boise State, is well poised to play for the "national championship". TCU was 3rd in the computer polls prior to destroying Utah, and their hand will strengthen.

If Auburn and Oregon continue to win out, the BCS will remain unbusted. But with what's happened so far this year, don't be surprised to see the Horned Frogs playing for the title.

And Your BCS Title Winner is …

Here at Boys of Old Florida we try to be ahead of the curve. For years (the Saurian Sagacity days) I’ve compiled what statistical characteristics are common among BCS title winners. In sum, you are looking for teams that are ranked near the top in –

Scoring Defense
Total Defense
Passing Efficiency Defense
Passing Efficiency

With 6 games in the books, here are the four teams that look to be on track to achieve – at least statistically – what past BCS title holders have done.

Ohio State

Yes, I’ve maligned their competition so far (86th SOS per the NCAA). But their current rankings in the all-important categories above are –

Scoring Defense – 6th
Total Defense – 3rd
Passing Efficiency Defense – 3rd
Passing Efficiency – 10th

The Buckeyes are well within what we would expect in these statistics for a BCS Champ.

Route to the Title Game – Win out, they’re already number 1 in both polls.

Roadblocks – Toughest part of their schedule lies ahead (which isn’t saying much)

Nebraska

No one is much talking about Nebraska as a title contender, but their stats say they might be –

Scoring Defense – 4th
Total Defense – 12th
Passing Efficiency Defense – 1st
Passing Efficiency – 26th

The Huskers Passing Efficiency is right at the upper limit of what we might expect, but their other categories look strong.

Route to the Title Game – A straight shot. Win the Big 12 North, then win the title game. The Cornhuskers are 4th in the Coaches Poll with 2 first place votes already. Destiny is in their own hands.

Roadblocks – Toughest remaining regular season game next weekend at Oklahoma State, or *perhaps* Texas this weekend. Would face either the same Oklahoma State or Oklahoma in the Big 12 Title game.

Iowa

Don’t sleep on the Hawkeyes. They have a narrow, out-of-conference loss at Arizona, and have an outside shot at the title game.

Scoring Defense – 1st
Total Defense – 4th
Passing Efficiency Defense – 10th
Passing Efficiency – 3rd

Iowa has maybe the strongest statistical case of these 4.

Route to the Title Game – Trickier than the first two, but not impossible. They have games at Michigan, than Wisconsin and Michigan State at home. Win those and they will move up nicely in the rankings for their home game against current number 1 Ohio State. Beat OSU and, with a couple of other breaks, a trip to the BCS title game is within reach.

Roadblocks – See Route above. They have a tough remaining schedule, and are currently 14th in the Coaches Poll

TCU

The Horned Frogs have the statistics that count –

Scoring Defense – 2nd
Total Defense – 1st
Passing Efficiency Defense – 15th
Passing Efficiency – 21st

Route to the Title Game – Presently 5th in the Coaches Poll, TCU still has games against ranked opponents Air Force and Utah. Win the remaining games and they can leapfrog Boise State in the BCS formula, with some breaks their way.

Roadblocks – Their fate isn’t really in their hands – it’s in the hands of the BCS Computers. Plus they remain in the shadow of pre-season BCS buster darling Boise State. I think they would need a Boise loss and some real luck to get to the title game.


And there you have it folks – one of the above will be your BCS Title winner in 2010.

Unless, of course, they’re not.

The Wrong Cinderella?

The sports media has focused on Boise State this year as perhaps the ultimate “BCS buster” – the team that may finally break through from a non-BCS conference to play for the BCS title.

In line with this thinking the Broncos were a preseason 5th in the Coaches’ Poll, and 3rd on the AP ballot. (One wonders if the media voters might be more encouraged to create a “BCS buster” than the Coaches.).

TCU, although positioned nearly as favorably as Boise State (7th Coaches’, 6th AP), has pretty much been an afterthought.

Based on the evidence three games into the season, that thinking needs to change.

Here’s the Horned Frog’s schedule -

09/04/10 Oregon St. 30-21
09/11/10 Tennessee Tech 62-7
09/18/10 Baylor 45-10
09/24/10 SMU
10/02/10 Colorado St.
10/09/10 Wyoming
10/16/10 BYU
10/23/10 Air Force
10/30/10 UNLV
11/06/10 Utah
11/13/10 San Diego St.
11/27/10 New Mexico

Not only do the Frogs play Oregon State and Wyoming, like the Broncos, they have Baylor, BYU, Air Force and Utah.

Now here’s the Bronco’s lineup -

09/06/10 Virginia Tech 33-30
09/18/10 Wyoming 51-6
09/25/10 Oregon St.
10/02/10 New Mexico St.
10/09/10 Toledo
10/16/10 San Jose St.
10/26/10 Louisiana Tech
11/06/10 Hawaii
11/12/10 Idaho
11/19/10 Fresno St.
11/26/10 Nevada
12/04/10 Utah St.

We now know that Virginia Tech is, well awful, and won’t be ranked again this year. After the game against the Beavers this weekend, what does Boise face? Nevada? I don’t see much meat on this schedule.

Sure BYU, Air Force and Utah aren’t an SEC schedule, but they are pretty decent teams, especially compared to Boise’s slate.

After 3 weeks in the season, TCU has the 6th ranked Scoring Offense (to Boise’s 15th ranked), and 9th ranked Scoring Defense (Boise is 34th).

To the credit of the BlogPoll voters they seem to get this. In the BlogPoll TCU is 4th, one spot ahead of Boise.

It will be interesting to see how Boise handles the Beavers. But to my thinking, so far, TCU looks better to the eye test if the BCS needs busting.

The (non-BCS) Foxes in the Hen House

There has been much hand wringing and angst about Boise State’s presence at 3rd in the AP Poll, as well as 5th in the Coaches Poll.


On one side you have the “give the little guy a chance" camp, that cites Utah’s win over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl 2 years ago and Boise’s own epic win over Oklahoma as evidence the non-BCS schools deserve a shot.


On the other side you have the “traditionalists” who think that, absent a schedule of sufficient merit, the Boise States of the world never deserve a shot at the BCS title.

I’m looking at it a little differently – as in its time to resolve this nonsense once and for all.

Anyone who has read my writing before knows I’m not a big fan of the BCS. College football is the only sport where approximately ½ of its teams are eliminated from “national” title contention prior to the first kickoff. Sure the mid-majors don’t play the schedules the “big boys” do, but the BCS conference teams seem to have no problem counting both the wins against them and the gaudy statistics that result from those wins. For instance, imagine if you took away all the touchdowns Tim Tebow had against non-BCS teams in his Florida career (he wouldn’t have that rushing TD title, for one.) Somehow it is fundamentally unfair that BCS teams count the stats and wins against these teams yet shut them out of title contention.


What I would like to see this season is the evolution of the journey that began with Boise’s win over Oklahoma come to a conclusion. I want Boise, or TCU, to play in the BCS title game.


Here’s my thinking – there can be really only two possible outcomes if a non-BCS team gets at “national” title shot:

1. They acquit themselves admirably by either keeping it close, or winning.


2. They get totally destroyed.


How I would like to see it happen would be a team like Boise plays a one-loss major conference team. If scenario 1 occurs, it is pretty clear that current opinion about how non-BCS teams fit into the overall title picture is due for rethinking.

And if scenario 2 occurs, as far as I am concerned that-is-that. The question is answered, and the non-BCS teams role as perpetual homecoming opponents can be cemented for at least a decade.

Is scenario 2 necessarily fair? No, it’s not, but the current system is about as unfair as conceptually possible. It’s a mighty burden to place on a Boise State or TCU – one game for the future of the non-BCS conferences. But it was a burden that was going to exist regardless (and already has), and it’s time to get some resolution to this issue.

So step up Boise or TCU, and let’s find out what you really have.