Power Rankings – Week 6

Brought to you in its entirety by the mystic powers of Les Miles

I’ve gone ahead and applied the entire formula, including SOS. (For those who need to see my formula look at the end of this post.)

I don’t much like what the results are. Accordingly, I’m going to post the results both with and without SOS factored in.

In the past (generally after week 7 or 8) the Power Rankings have shown a pretty accurate representation of the relative “power” of NCAA teams. I’ve used them – quite successfully – in making “investments”. I wouldn’t so utilize them at this point in time, however.

Week 6 Power Rankings with SOS

1 Missouri 1.936
2 South Carolina 1.722
3 TCU 1.703
4 Boise St. 1.659
5 Michigan St. 1.632
6 LSU 1.623
7 Oklahoma 1.590
8 Arizona 1.588
9 Stanford 1.524
10 California 1.473
11 Nebraska 1.452
12 West Virginia 1.399
13 Auburn 1.379
14 Iowa 1.370
15 Illinois 1.361
16 Alabama 1.331
17 North Carolina St. 1.322
18 Arkansas 1.296
19 Kansas St. 1.286
20 Oklahoma St. 1.244
21 Mississippi St. 1.231
22 Michigan 1.231
23 Florida St. 1.224
24 Virginia Tech 1.223
25 Oregon St. 1.198

Whaaaaa? Missouri at #1? And where is Oregon??

Well Missouri gets the top nod because they have a decent Scoring Offense, 3rd ranked Scoring Defense, and a respectable SOS (0.667). Oregon, who ends up thirty-freaking-ninth, suffers from a terrible SOS (0.300). That’s the 110th ranked schedule in the nation per the NCAA, with opponent’s records of 6-14 overall.

I don’t think Oregon deserves to be ranked 39th, but I’ll bet they are pretty vulnerable.

Also check out Illinois ranked 15th, just ahead of Alabama. The Illini have the overall 3rd ranked SOS per the NCAA (opponents are 13-3!). So, as Penn State found out, maybe the Fighting Zooks are better than first thought.

Florida registers 26th here.

In a (slight) defense of these rankings, the Computer Polls that make up the BCS are showing some crazy stuff thus far. Take a look here. More on this later


Week 6 Power Rankings without SOS

1 TCU 2.754
2 Oregon 2.625
3 Nebraska 2.563
1 Missouri 2.562
2 Boise St. 2.562
3 Utah 2.556
4 Ohio St. 2.550
5 Iowa 2.418
6 Nevada 2.333
7 Oklahoma St. 2.317
8 Alabama 2.243
9 Michigan St. 2.216
10 Florida St. 2.159
11 Auburn 2.153
12 LSU 2.148
13 Arizona 2.102
14 West Virginia 2.098
15 Stanford 2.062
16 Wisconsin 2.054
17 Oklahoma 2.051
18 Arkansas 2.032
19 Air Force 2.030
20 Syracuse 2.012
21 North Carolina St. 1.984
22 Maryland 1.940
23 South Carolina 1.924
24 Michigan 1.901
25 Northwestern 1.899

This probably looks better to the “eye” at this point. The Gators ranks 35th here.



*(SD Ratio + SO Ratio+ W/L Record) * SOS = Power Value


Explained further –


SD Ratio is a ratio of each team’s scoring defense to the best scoring defense. This is made into a ratio that compares it to the top Scoring Defense.


SO Ratio is a ratio of each team’s scoring offense to the best scoring offense.


W/L record is a simple calculation of % record.


We add the three components together. Then the number is multiplied by the strength of schedule (also a ratio) per the NCAA, The end result is the power ranking.