Power Rankings – Pre Bowl

First of all I apologize to our blog readers, should any actually remain. In the past 2 weeks I’ve moved residences (leaving me without computer access) and been down with a nasty case of the Flu. So I’ve been AWOL during this active time (welcome Will Muschamp!)

I know some of you have looked at my Power Rankings in the past for “investment” purposes, so they are presented here pre-bowl (all disclaimers apply – not a gambling website). Here are the Pre-Bowl Rankings for all 120 NCAA teams –

1	Auburn		2.2523
2	Boise St .		2.1603
3	TCU		2.0826
4	Ohio St .		2.0100
5	Missouri		1.9592
6	Oregon		1.8915
7	Arkansas		1.8792
8	LSU		1.8380
9	Oklahoma		1.8374
10	Stanford		1.8097
11	Alabama		1.7954
12	Oklahoma St .		1.7643
13	Michigan St .		1.7466
14	Wisconsin		1.7436
15	Texas A&M		1.6969
16	Virginia Tech		1.6036
17	Nebraska		1.5793
18	Nevada		1.5223
19	South Carolina		1.4623
20	West Virginia		1.4620
21	Florida St .		1.4017
22	Iowa		1.3452
23	Utah		1.3254
24	Hawaii		1.3150
25	Notre Dame		1.2978
26	North Carolina St .		1.2959
27	Mississippi St .		1.2378
28	Florida		1.2124
29	Air Force		1.2120
30	Miami (FL)		1.1846
31	Illinois		1.1800
32	Tulsa		1.1642
33	UCF		1.1617
34	Maryland		1.1375
35	Michigan		1.1245
36	Arizona		1.1199
37	Pittsburgh		1.1130
38	Northern Ill.		1.1116
39	Penn St.		1.1009
40	Navy		1.0962
41	Clemson		1.0956
42	Baylor		1.0873
43	Georgia		1.0863
44	Arizona St .		1.0829
45	Kansas St .		1.0593
46	San Diego St .		1.0556
47	Texas Tech		1.0549
48	East Carolina		1.0060
49	Southern California		1.0059
50	Southern Miss.		1.0027
51	North Carolina		0.9899
52	Connecticut		0.9761
53	California		0.9517
54	Temple		0.9507
55	Fresno St .		0.9445
56	Oregon St .		0.9297
57	Cincinnati		0.9121
58	Ohio		0.9104
59	BYU		0.9077
60	Boston College		0.9050
61	Syracuse		0.8936
62	South Fla.		0.8870
63	Tennessee		0.8864
64	SMU		0.8792
65	Iowa St.		0.8780
66	Houston		0.8669
67	Louisiana Tech		0.8618
68	Mississippi		0.8601
69	Texas		0.8570
70	Toledo		0.8444
71	Kentucky		0.8340
72	Louisville		0.8269
73	Minnesota		0.8153
74	Western Mich.		0.8027
75	Colorado		0.7979
76	Washington		0.7949
77	Northwestern		0.7871
78	Central Mich.		0.7842
79	Georgia Tech		0.7637
80	Purdue		0.7627
81	Army		0.7627
82	Virginia		0.7579
83	Miami (OH)		0.7547
84	Idaho		0.7456
85	Troy		0.7418
86	Kent St .		0.7240
87	Utah St .		0.7141
88	Indiana		0.7062
89	FIU		0.6964
90	Duke		0.6931
91	Arkansas St .		0.6914
92	Marshall		0.6902
93	Wake Forest		0.6880
94	UAB		0.6710
95	Rutgers		0.6629
96	Rice		0.6577
97	UCLA		0.6490
98	La.-Monroe		0.6440
99	Wyoming		0.6415
100	Washington St .		0.6280
101	Tulane		0.6173
102	UTEP		0.6143
103	Kansas		0.6064
104	San Jose St .		0.6055
105	UNLV		0.5998
106	Bowling Green		0.5736
107	Colorado St .		0.5544
108	Vanderbilt		0.5328
109	Middle Tenn.		0.5178
110	North Texas		0.5043
111	La.-Lafayette		0.5018
112	Western Ky.		0.5004
113	Buffalo		0.4986
114	Fla. Atlantic		0.4842
115	Ball St .		0.4467
116	Eastern Mich.		0.4451
117	Akron		0.4409
118	New Mexico		0.4367
119	New Mexico St .		0.4314
120	Memphis		0.4296

Auburn is our number 1, and BCS opponent Oregon 6th. The Ducks rank so relatively low due to their super-easy schedule this year – 76th of 120 teams per the NCAA.

If you want to use these rankings to make a “prediction”, multiply the Power Ranking score (last number) by 27 and compare the values between teams. For example, Florida has a 32.73 (1.2124 x 27) and Penn State a 29.72 (1.1009 x 27) making Florida a 3 point favorite at a neutral location.

Notably, Auburn looks to be about a 9 point favorite over Oregon per this method.



*Methodology


(SD Ratio + SO Ratio+ W/L Record) * SOS = Power Value

Explained further –


SD Ratio is a ratio of each team’s scoring defense to the best scoring defense. This is made into a ratio that compares it to the top Scoring Defense.


SO Ratio is a ratio of each team’s scoring offense to the best scoring offense.


W/L record is a calculation of % record done as follows W/(W+(L*L)). In this way losses are given increasing weight. (1 loss is still “1”, but 2 losses are “4”, and so on).


We add the three components together. Then the number is multiplied by the strength of schedule (also a ratio) per the NCAA, The end result is the power ranking.